Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Shenyang Urban at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenyang Urban stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.30 (Shenyang Urban). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Shenyang Urban and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Shenyang Urban have gone 6W 2D 9L. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 6 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Tianjin Teda have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.30 per game against Shenyang Urban's 1.70. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 2). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Shenyang Urban 2/2 this season.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Shenyang Urban in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 59% versus Shenyang Urban 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Shenyang Urban 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.76 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.910 / defence 0.965 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.931 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 17 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 23% | Shenyang Urban 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Shenyang Urban 3.70. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shenyang Urban 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) | Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 0 – 3 Shenyang Urban • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 0% / Draw 0% / Shenyang Urban 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 50% / draw 23% / away 27% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 58% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Shenyang Urban away split: 0.62 PPG from 8 | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Shenyang Urban 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.76 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson xG of 1.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.12 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~54% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 23% | Shenyang Urban 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.76 / Shenyang Urban 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.910 / def 0.965 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.931 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Shenyang Urban xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 50% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban?
• Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 0 – 3 Shenyang Urban • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 0% / Draw 0% / Shenyang Urban 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 50% / draw 23% / away 27% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 58% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Shenyang Urban away split: 0.62 PPG from 8 | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Shenyang Urban 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.76 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson xG of 1.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.12 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~54% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture