Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (65%) | Draw 4.76 (19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (16%).
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 5D 2L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.60 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 4–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Hangzhou Greentown show 6W 4D 7L from 17 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 6W 3D 8L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 17 games (29%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Hangzhou Greentown lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Hangzhou Greentown are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Qingdao Jonoon score 2+ goals far more often (29% vs 12%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 vs Qingdao Jonoon 1/1 this season.
Standings Snapshot
Hangzhou Greentown hold the table advantage, sitting 11th with 17 points — 3 positions and 3 points clear of Qingdao Jonoon in 14th.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record this season stands at 3W 3D 2L. On the road, Qingdao Jonoon's record stands at 1W 1D 6L this term.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.885 / defence 1.072 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.12. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The model sees Hangzhou Greentown as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 45% versus the market's fair-implied 65% (priced at 1.43). With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The market (1.38, fair-implied 68%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.51, fair-implied 61%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Manager edge: Qingdao Jonoon led by Li Xiaopeng • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hangzhou Greentown 15 – 10 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Hangzhou Greentown 43% / Draw 43% / Qingdao Jonoon 14% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Hangzhou Greentown favoured. H2H win rate 43%, Poisson win probability 45% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.19 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson projects 1.75 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson xG of 1.44 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.19 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hangzhou Greentown 6/10, Qingdao Jonoon 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.885 / def 1.072 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (impl 65%) | Draw 4.76 (impl 19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (impl 16%) • Market favourite: Hangzhou Greentown at 1.43 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Hangzhou Greentown) but significant probability gap — Poisson 45% vs market implied 65% (20pp) — large discrepancy warrants deeper investigation before acting • Hangzhou Greentown Win: Poisson 45% vs market fair-implied 65% (20pp gap) — the model sees Hangzhou Greentown as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 32% vs market fair-implied 16% (16pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.38 (impl 73%) / Under 2.5 2.90 (impl 35%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 62% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.51 (impl 66%) / No 2.38 (impl 42%) | Poisson BTTS probability 63%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Qingdao Jonoon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
• Record (7 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hangzhou Greentown 15 – 10 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Hangzhou Greentown 43% / Draw 43% / Qingdao Jonoon 14% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Hangzhou Greentown favoured. H2H win rate 43%, Poisson win probability 45% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.19 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in?
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson projects 1.75 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson xG of 1.44 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.19 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hangzhou Greentown 6/10, Qingdao Jonoon 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
• 1X2 market: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (impl 65%) | Draw 4.76 (impl 19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (impl 16%) • Market favourite: Hangzhou Greentown at 1.43 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Hangzhou Greentown) but significant probability gap — Poisson 45% vs market implied 65% (20pp) — large discrepancy warrants deeper investigation before acting • Hangzhou Greentown Win: Poisson 45% vs market fair-implied 65% (20pp gap) — the model sees Hangzhou Greentown as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 32% vs market fair-implied 16% (16pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.38 (impl 73%) / Under 2.5 2.90 (impl 35%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 62% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.51 (impl 66%) / No 2.38 (impl 42%) | Poisson BTTS probability 63%