Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (65%) | Draw 4.76 (19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (16%).
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 5D 2L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.60 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 4–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.885 / defence 1.072 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.12. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The model sees Hangzhou Greentown as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 45% versus the market's fair-implied 65% (priced at 1.43). With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The market (1.38, fair-implied 68%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.51, fair-implied 61%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.885 / def 1.072 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (impl 65%) | Draw 4.76 (impl 19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (impl 16%) • Market favourite: Hangzhou Greentown at 1.43 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Hangzhou Greentown) but significant probability gap — Poisson 45% vs market implied 65% (20pp) — large discrepancy warrants deeper investigation before acting • Hangzhou Greentown Win: Poisson 45% vs market fair-implied 65% (20pp gap) — the model sees Hangzhou Greentown as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 32% vs market fair-implied 16% (16pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.38 (impl 73%) / Under 2.5 2.90 (impl 35%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 62% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.51 (impl 66%) / No 2.38 (impl 42%) | Poisson BTTS probability 63%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Qingdao Jonoon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (7 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
1X2 market: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 (impl 65%) | Draw 4.76 (impl 19%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 (impl 16%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.89) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.31
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.19
1.44
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.44 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 16W 16D 15L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 11W 13D 23L from 47 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.36 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (9W 11D 3L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 16L from 23 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 16W 16D 15L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 23L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.65 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 70%, Qingdao Jonoon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 52% (Qingdao Jonoon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.44 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 68%, Qingdao Jonoon 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.