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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 43%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu host Qingdao Youth Island at Shenzhen Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Shenzhen Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Qingdao Youth Island have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

It is worth noting that Qingdao Youth Island have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Team Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu have played 17 games this season, recording 5W 2D 10L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.18 reds per game.

Across 17 matches this season, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 9D 3L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Qingdao Youth Island lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 vs Qingdao Youth Island 3/5 this season.

Trading Patterns

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 60% and Qingdao Youth Island 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.033 / defence 1.163 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.027 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 43% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.

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