Shenyang Urban 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban host Wuhan Three Towns at Tiexi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenyang Urban — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Tiexi Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shenyang Urban are significantly better at Tiexi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wuhan Three Towns are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shenyang Urban in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenyang Urban 54% and Wuhan Three Towns 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 65% | Wuhan Three Towns 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 2.00 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.989 / defence 1.305 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.132 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.383. Data: 26 Shenyang Urban games / 56 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 40%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 80% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Shenyang Urban 2.00 / Wuhan Three Towns 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.989 / def 1.305 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.132 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Shenyang Urban 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 38% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 0W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.99) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
38%
2.60
22%
4.62
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
4.05
2.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.14
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
5%
20.08
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 2.04 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenyang Urban come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 4D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (5W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenyang Urban on 0.96 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shenyang Urban's home form reads 6W 1D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Shenyang Urban are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (1W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenyang Urban come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Shenyang Urban's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.46 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
2
Draws
0
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Shenyang Urban 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenyang Urban at 69%, Wuhan Three Towns at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shenyang Urban and 69% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Shenyang Urban's games and 85% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 69% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 1-1 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 2.00 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.04 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shenyang Urban fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.13 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 40%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenyang Urban 65%, Wuhan Three Towns 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenyang Urban 0.96 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.