Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chengdu Better City face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 1D 2L at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Team Stats
Chengdu Better City have played 18 games this season, recording 13W 3D 2L. They average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 9 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 18 games (39%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 6D 7L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Chengdu Better City have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.10 per game versus 1.30 for the visitors. Chengdu Better City have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.90 per game against Tianjin Teda's 1.30. Chengdu Better City lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 4). Chengdu Better City score 2+ goals far more often (39% vs 18%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Chengdu Better City 4/4 vs Tianjin Teda 4/5 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Chengdu Better City (1st, 42 pts) 14 places above Tianjin Teda (15th, 8 pts) — a 34-point gap in Super League.
On home turf, Chengdu Better City's Super League record reads 7W 1D 1L this term. Away from home, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 3D 3L in Super League this season. Chengdu Better City: Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase). Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 62% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 57% | Tianjin Teda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.104 / defence 0.699 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.924 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Chengdu Better City games / 47 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 21%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 4.76. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Chengdu Better City (Seo Jung-Won) | Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Chengdu Better City 4W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 2W • Goals trend: 2.89 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chengdu Better City 14 – 12 Tianjin Teda • H2H markets: BTTS 89% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Chengdu Better City 44% / Draw 33% / Tianjin Teda 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Chengdu Better City favoured. H2H win rate 44%, Poisson win probability 54% • Goals: H2H average 2.89/game (78% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 89%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D • Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Chengdu Better City home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 4 • Tianjin Teda away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Chengdu Better City lead by 0.70 PPG (2.00 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 0.88 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Chengdu Better City — Chengdu Better City at 54% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.59 / Tianjin Teda 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.104 / def 0.699 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.924 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Tianjin Teda xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 54% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
• Record (9 meetings): Chengdu Better City 4W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 2W • Goals trend: 2.89 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chengdu Better City 14 – 12 Tianjin Teda • H2H markets: BTTS 89% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Chengdu Better City 44% / Draw 33% / Tianjin Teda 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Chengdu Better City favoured. H2H win rate 44%, Poisson win probability 54% • Goals: H2H average 2.89/game (78% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 89%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in?
• Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D • Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Chengdu Better City home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 4 • Tianjin Teda away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Chengdu Better City lead by 0.70 PPG (2.00 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 0.88 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Chengdu Better City — Chengdu Better City at 54% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture