Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhan Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Centre this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Wuhan Three Towns have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Henan Jianye have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wuhan Three Towns and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Wuhan Three Towns show 2W 7D 8L from 17 outings in Super League. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Longest draw run: 5 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 3D 8L. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Henan Jianye have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.30 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Henan Jianye lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 1). Wuhan Three Towns are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Wuhan Three Towns 4/4 vs Henan Jianye 2/3 this season.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 64% and Henan Jianye 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 62% | Henan Jianye 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 xG and Henan Jianye 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.854 / defence 1.040 | Henan Jianye attack 0.895 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Wuhan Three Towns games / 47 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 70% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Wuhan Three Towns (Deng Zhuoxiang) | Henan Jianye (Daniel Ramos) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 5W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 2W • Goals trend: 3.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wuhan Three Towns 18 – 15 Henan Jianye • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Wuhan Three Towns 56% / Draw 22% / Henan Jianye 22% • Historical edge: Wuhan Three Towns dominant — 5W from 9 meetings (56% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Wuhan Three Towns favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 37% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.67 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.58 (48% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L • Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Henan Jianye away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | CS 1 • Form edge: Henan Jianye lead by 0.70 PPG (1.30 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Wuhan Three Towns): Poisson xG of 1.30 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.28 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.58 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Wuhan Three Towns 7/10, Henan Jianye 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 53% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Henan Jianye on PPG but Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns higher (37% vs 36% for Henan Jianye) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 / Henan Jianye 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.854 / def 1.040 | Henan Jianye attack 0.895 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 37% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
• Record (9 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 5W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 2W • Goals trend: 3.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wuhan Three Towns 18 – 15 Henan Jianye • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Wuhan Three Towns 56% / Draw 22% / Henan Jianye 22% • Historical edge: Wuhan Three Towns dominant — 5W from 9 meetings (56% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Wuhan Three Towns favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 37% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.67 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.58 (48% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in?
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L • Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Henan Jianye away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | CS 1 • Form edge: Henan Jianye lead by 0.70 PPG (1.30 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Wuhan Three Towns): Poisson xG of 1.30 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.28 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.58 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Wuhan Three Towns 7/10, Henan Jianye 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 53% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Henan Jianye on PPG but Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns higher (37% vs 36% for Henan Jianye) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture