Chengdu Better City 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chengdu Better City have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 1.20 PPG lead over Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 59% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.171 / defence 0.664 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.761 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.664 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Chengdu Better City games / 17 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 12%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 50% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.94 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.171 / def 0.664 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.761 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 67% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.17) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.76x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.85
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.64
0.69
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
2%
55.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.69 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 13W 2D 2L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form line: 7W 6D 4L from 17 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.62 PPG from 8 outings (7W 0D 1L).
On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 13W 2D 2L in their last 17 games (2.41 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.62 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since March 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Chengdu Better City 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 38%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Chengdu Better City) and 50% (Chongqing Tongliang Long). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 50% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 50% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 18, as Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.69 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.17 / defence 0.66 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.76 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 12%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 59%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.