Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to Wuliangye Sports Center Stadium to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chengdu Better City have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Wuliangye Sports Center Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 1.20 PPG lead over Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Stats
Across 17 matches this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 13W 2D 2L. Attacking returns: 2.2 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 9 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 17 games (41%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Chongqing Tongliang Long show 7W 6D 4L from 17 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Chengdu Better City have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.20 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 6). Chengdu Better City score 2+ goals far more often (41% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Chengdu Better City 4/4 vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 this season.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 59% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.171 / defence 0.664 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.761 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.664 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Chengdu Better City games / 17 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 12%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 50% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wuliangye Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Chengdu Better City (Seo Jung-Won) | Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chengdu Better City 3 – 3 Chongqing Tongliang Long • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chengdu Better City 0% / Draw 100% / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 67% / draw 21% / away 12% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.64 (49% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 43% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L • Chengdu Better City home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | CS 4 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.38 PPG from 8 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | CS 3 • Form edge: Chengdu Better City lead by 1.20 PPG (2.20 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson projects 0.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 43% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Chengdu Better City — Chengdu Better City at 67% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 67% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.94 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.171 / def 0.664 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.761 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Wuliangye Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Wuliangye Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 67% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chengdu Better City 3 – 3 Chongqing Tongliang Long • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chengdu Better City 0% / Draw 100% / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 67% / draw 21% / away 12% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.64 (49% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 43% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
• Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L • Chengdu Better City home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | CS 4 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.38 PPG from 8 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | CS 3 • Form edge: Chengdu Better City lead by 1.20 PPG (2.20 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson projects 0.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 43% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Chengdu Better City — Chengdu Better City at 67% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture