SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Zhixing to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pudong Football Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SHANGHAI SIPG at 1.70 PPG versus Dalian Zhixing's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 79% and Dalian Zhixing 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Dalian Zhixing 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.87 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.950 / defence 0.863 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.870 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.342. Data: 52 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 52 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.87 / Dalian Zhixing 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.950 / def 0.863 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.870 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Dalian Zhixing xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 58% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
58%
1.74
22%
4.47
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.88
1.01
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
32.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.01 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 52 games, going 28W 12D 12L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.31 PPG from 52 outings (19W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 13W 7D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.68 points per game from 25 outings (3W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 19W 11D 22L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.84 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2025, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 76%, Dalian Zhixing at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 56% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 64% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 56% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing finished level at 1-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.87 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.01 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 73%, Dalian Zhixing 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.