Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.30 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 6W 4D 7L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Tianjin Teda have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.30 per game against Hangzhou Greentown's 1.70. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 3). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 this season.
Table Standings
In the Super League table, Hangzhou Greentown sit 11th on 17 points, 4 places and 9 points ahead of Tianjin Teda in 15th.
On home turf, Tianjin Teda's Super League record reads 2W 3D 4L this term. Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 1D 5L in Super League this season. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Hangzhou Greentown 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Hangzhou Greentown 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.84 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / defence 0.965 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 47 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.45. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Manager edge: Tianjin Teda led by Yu Genwei • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 4W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 4W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 14 – 14 Hangzhou Greentown • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 44% / Draw 11% / Hangzhou Greentown 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 23% / away 29% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.22 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.84 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.22 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.84 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / def 0.965 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 48% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
• Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 4W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 4W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 14 – 14 Hangzhou Greentown • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 44% / Draw 11% / Hangzhou Greentown 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 23% / away 29% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.22 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.84 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.22 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture