Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.70 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 56% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 52% | Hangzhou Greentown 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.76 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.959 / defence 1.124 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.968 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 54 Tianjin Teda games / 54 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.76 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.959 / def 1.124 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.968 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Hangzhou Greentown xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 3W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.96) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.25
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.28
1.53
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
6%
17.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.53 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 16D 19L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 19W 18D 17L from 54 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.35 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.85 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 18D 17L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.52 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Hangzhou Greentown 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Tianjin Teda and 67% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.