Shenyang Urban 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Shenyang Urban welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.32 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.737 / defence 0.947 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.245. Shenyang Urban's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Shenyang Urban games / 42 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenyang Urban as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.32 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.737 / def 0.947 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shenyang Urban 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 40% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.74) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.65
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.47
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.15 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 1 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Shenyang Urban 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shenyang Urban edge out Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.32 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.74 / defence 0.95 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.