Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Shenyang Urban welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Tiexi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shenyang Urban, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.32 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.737 / defence 0.947 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.245. Shenyang Urban's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Shenyang Urban games / 42 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenyang Urban as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) | Qingdao Jonoon (Li Xiaopeng) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 0 – 5 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 0% / Draw 33% / Qingdao Jonoon 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Qingdao Jonoon (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban as more likely (home 40% / draw 27% / away 32%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 40% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.32 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.737 / def 0.947 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.974 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shenyang Urban 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 40% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon?
• Record (3 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 0 – 5 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 0% / Draw 33% / Qingdao Jonoon 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Qingdao Jonoon (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban as more likely (home 40% / draw 27% / away 32%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Jonoon in?
• Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Jonoon?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture