Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Wuhan Three Towns welcome Shenyang Urban to Wuhan Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Centre this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Team Stats
Wuhan Three Towns have played 30 games this season, recording 6W 7D 17L. They average 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.89 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.867 / defence 1.104 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.561 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.245. Shenyang Urban bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Wuhan Three Towns games / 11 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 14%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Shenyang Urban 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Wuhan Three Towns (Deng Zhuoxiang) | Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.89 / Shenyang Urban 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.867 / def 1.104 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.561 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shenyang Urban xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 2 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 63% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban in?
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture