Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Chongqing Tongliang Long at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 09:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.73 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.138 / defence 0.960 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.861 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.217. Data: 43 Qingdao Jonoon games / 13 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.73 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.138 / def 0.960 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.861 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 09:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 54% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Qingdao Jonoon home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.14x the league average against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.00
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.73
1.00
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
26.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.00 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 1 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Chongqing Tongliang Long defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.73 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Chongqing Tongliang Long win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.