Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Yunnan Yukun travel to Longxing Football Stadium to take on Chongqing Tongliang Long. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Yunnan Yukun away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.53 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.887 / defence 1.010 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.372 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.251. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 42 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 34% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 43%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Yunnan Yukun 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Longxing Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 34% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.53 / Yunnan Yukun 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.887 / def 1.010 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.372 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Yunnan Yukun xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Longxing Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 - 0 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Longxing Football Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 34% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Yunnan Yukun away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.89x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
34%
2.93
23%
4.32
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
3.27
1.73
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.73 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun?
From 1 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Chongqing Tongliang Long's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Longxing Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Chongqing Tongliang Long and Yunnan Yukun drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.53 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.73 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.37 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 34% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 43%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.