Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Tianjin Teda hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Henan Jianye, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The historical record gives Tianjin Teda a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 57% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Henan Jianye 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Henan Jianye 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.824 / defence 1.179 | Henan Jianye attack 0.786 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.238. Data: 42 Tianjin Teda games / 42 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Tianjin Teda dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Henan Jianye 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.22 / Henan Jianye 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.824 / def 1.179 | Henan Jianye attack 0.786 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Henan Jianye xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 38% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 6W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.82) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Henan Jianye xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.15 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 25L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.43 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 9D 6L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.43 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 6, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Henan Jianye 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Henan Jianye 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.