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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye encounter.

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Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Tianjin Teda's home record at TEDA Football Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Tianjin Teda hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Henan Jianye, with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The historical record gives Tianjin Teda a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Team Stats

Tianjin Teda have played 30 games this season, recording 12W 8D 10L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Across 30 matches this season, Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Henan Jianye have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 5). Henan Jianye score 2+ goals far more often (23% vs 7%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/4 vs Henan Jianye 10/10 this season.

Trading Patterns

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 57% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Henan Jianye 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Henan Jianye 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.824 / defence 1.179 | Henan Jianye attack 0.786 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.238. Data: 42 Tianjin Teda games / 42 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Tianjin Teda dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Henan Jianye 80%.

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