Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Shenzhen Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Shenzhen Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Sichuan Jiuniu show 8W 3D 19L from 30 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 2.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Dalian Zhixing's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 9W 9D 12L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Dalian Zhixing have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.50 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Dalian Zhixing lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 5). Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 1/1 vs Dalian Zhixing 2/2 this season.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 60% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.964 / defence 1.109 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.238. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 42 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 4.17. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Dalian Zhixing 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Sichuan Jiuniu (C. Lattanzio) | Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 2 – 3 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 0% / Draw 50% / Dalian Zhixing 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 22% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D • Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG vs Dalian Zhixing 0.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 2.01 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 8/10, Dalian Zhixing 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.01 / Dalian Zhixing 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.964 / def 1.109 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dalian Zhixing xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 54% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
• Record (2 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 2 – 3 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 0% / Draw 50% / Dalian Zhixing 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 22% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 63% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing in?
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D • Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG vs Dalian Zhixing 0.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 2.01 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 8/10, Dalian Zhixing 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture