Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 47%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng meet at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hangzhou Greentown at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 4 for Shandong Luneng and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Shandong Luneng 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Shandong Luneng 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.818 / defence 0.826 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.050 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.251. Data: 42 Hangzhou Greentown games / 42 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 27%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Shandong Luneng 3.70. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 / Shandong Luneng 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.818 / def 0.826 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.050 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shandong Luneng xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Hangzhou Greentown 4 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 47% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Record (8 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 4W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.82x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.05x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.60
1.08
Shandong Luneng xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.08 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 15L across 60 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.68 for Shandong Luneng. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 11D 5L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.97 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Shandong Luneng in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
2
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Hangzhou Greentown, 67% for Shandong Luneng — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 63% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 67% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 63% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shandong Luneng 4-1 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.08 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 27%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Shandong Luneng 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.