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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 71% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban encounter.

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Full Analysis

Hangzhou Dragon Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Shenyang Urban in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Hangzhou Greentown have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Shenyang Urban managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hangzhou Greentown and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.15 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / defence 0.827 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.673 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.233. Shenyang Urban bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hangzhou Greentown games / 13 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 71% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 10%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Shenyang Urban 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

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