Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Jonoon at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at Beijing Workers' Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–4 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 65% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.72 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / defence 1.204 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Beijing Guoan games / 41 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.33. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.72 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / def 1.204 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.12) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.08
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.09
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.38 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 32L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 20W 5D 5L from 30 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 3W 6D 21L across 30 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 70%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Beijing Guoan) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.72 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.