Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Jonoon at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at Beijing Workers' Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–4 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Beijing Guoan show 17W 6D 7L from 30 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 2.3 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-1 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 6-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 3-5-2. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Qingdao Jonoon's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 5W 10D 15L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.
Beijing Guoan have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.30 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 4). Qingdao Jonoon are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Beijing Guoan score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Beijing Guoan 5/5 vs Qingdao Jonoon 4/4 this season.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 65% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.72 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / defence 1.204 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Beijing Guoan games / 41 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.33. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) | Qingdao Jonoon (Li Xiaopeng) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 3.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Beijing Guoan 13 – 9 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Beijing Guoan 33% / Draw 33% / Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 45% / draw 24% / away 30% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.67 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.09 (60% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Beijing Guoan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.38 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 62% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.72 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / def 1.204 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
• Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 3.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Beijing Guoan 13 – 9 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Beijing Guoan 33% / Draw 33% / Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 45% / draw 24% / away 30% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.67 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.09 (60% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in?
• Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D • Beijing Guoan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.38 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 62% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture