Shenyang Urban 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenyang Urban face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City meet at Shenzhen Stadium in Super League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.34 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.875 / defence 0.913 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.355 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.189. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack rating of 1.355, which lifts their away xG to 1.47. Data: built from Shenyang Urban's last 9 games and Chengdu Better City's last 39.
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 40%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.90 | Draw 3.97 | Chengdu Better City 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shenyang Urban 1.34 / Chengdu Better City 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.875 / def 0.913 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.355 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Chengdu Better City xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City?
Shenyang Urban 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 34% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.88) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.35x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Shenyang Urban's last 9 games and Chengdu Better City's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
34%
2.90
25%
3.97
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.81
1.47
Chengdu Better City xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.47 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shenyang Urban (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City, the earliest from May 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Chengdu Better City 2-1 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Shenyang Urban 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shenyang Urban 0-1 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.34 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.47 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenyang Urban fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.35 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 40%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.