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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to Longxing Football Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Henan Jianye have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 1 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Stats

Henan Jianye have played 30 games this season, recording 10W 7D 13L. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.886 / defence 1.051 | Henan Jianye attack 0.876 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.176. Data: 9 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 39 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 40% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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