Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Longxing Football Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.886 / defence 1.051 | Henan Jianye attack 0.876 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.176. Data: 9 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 39 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 40% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Longxing Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 40% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.23 / Henan Jianye 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.886 / def 1.051 | Henan Jianye attack 0.876 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Henan Jianye xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Longxing Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Longxing Football Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 40% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Henan Jianye away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chongqing Tongliang Long's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.88x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.55
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
Henan Jianye xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.08 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2
Draws
0
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Longxing Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Henan Jianye attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 40% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.