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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.

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Match Analysis

Beijing Guoan host Dalian Zhixing at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Beijing Guoan at Beijing Workers' Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Profile

Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 63% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 70% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.032 / defence 1.292 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.147 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.203. Data: 39 Beijing Guoan games / 39 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 44% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 35%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.27 | Draw 4.76 | Dalian Zhixing 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Dalian Zhixing 60% BTTS from recent games.

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