Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Full Analysis

Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.40 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Youth Island lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.08 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.699 / defence 0.843 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.194 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.192. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Qingdao Youth Island games / 39 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 33% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Tianjin Teda 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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