Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban host Yunnan Yukun at Shenyang Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Yunnan Yukun 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
Yunnan Yukun's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 11W 9D 10L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 30 games (17%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.751 / defence 0.893 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.388 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.202. Shenyang Urban's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Shenyang Urban games / 40 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 33% | Draw 26% | Yunnan Yukun 41%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Yunnan Yukun 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Shenyang Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Manager edge: Shenyang Urban led by Li Jinyu • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Shenyang Urban 1W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 2 – 6 Yunnan Yukun • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 50% / Draw 0% / Yunnan Yukun 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 26% / away 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.80 (53% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Yunnan Yukun away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 33% | Draw 26% | Yunnan Yukun 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.31 / Yunnan Yukun 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.751 / def 0.893 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.388 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Yunnan Yukun xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Shenyang Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Shenyang Urban 1 - 2 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Shenyang Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 33% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun?
• Record (2 meetings): Shenyang Urban 1W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 2 – 6 Yunnan Yukun • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 50% / Draw 0% / Yunnan Yukun 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 26% / away 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.80 (53% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun in?
• Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Yunnan Yukun away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture