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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Sichuan Jiuniu.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 3D 1L at Pudong Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 4 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 6D 4L. Their scoring output is 2.4 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Sichuan Jiuniu have played 30 games this season, recording 8W 3D 19L. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 2.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.40 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. SHANGHAI SIPG have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.50 per game against Sichuan Jiuniu's 2.00. SHANGHAI SIPG score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: SHANGHAI SIPG 6/6 vs Sichuan Jiuniu 1/1 this season.

Trading

SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.247 / defence 0.991 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.778 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.203. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 39 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 16% | Sichuan Jiuniu 11%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Sichuan Jiuniu 9.09. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

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