Yunnan Yukun 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.30 (Hangzhou Greentown). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yunnan Yukun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Yunnan Yukun in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.51 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.217 / defence 1.231 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.918 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.180. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Yunnan Yukun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Yunnan Yukun games / 39 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 63% | Draw 18% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 63% | Draw 18% | Hangzhou Greentown 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 68% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.51 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.217 / def 1.231 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.918 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 63% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.22) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
63%
1.59
18%
5.49
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.84
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
8%
12.30
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
2%
65.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.33 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 11W 9D 10L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 8L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.40 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 2.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 12D 8L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 67% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Yunnan Yukun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Yunnan Yukun 1-2 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.51 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 63% | Draw 18% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Hangzhou Greentown win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.