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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Shenyang Urban make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 10W 7D 13L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.700 / defence 1.085 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.631 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.155. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Henan Jianye games / 8 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 29% | Shenyang Urban 24%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Shenyang Urban 4.17. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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