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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Chengdu Better City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.80 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 17W 9D 4L. They average 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 30 games (27%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Trading

Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chengdu Better City 58% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.491 / defence 0.761 | Henan Jianye attack 0.865 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.202. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Chengdu Better City games / 40 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 14%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Henan Jianye 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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