Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Henan Jianye against 2.20 for SHANGHAI SIPG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Henan Jianye's 3, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and SHANGHAI SIPG 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Henan Jianye 55% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.796 / defence 0.911 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.925 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.379. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 45 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 43% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Henan Jianye 1.24 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.796 / def 0.911 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.925 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Henan Jianye 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 38% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (9 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 6W.
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.80x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.93x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.62
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.40
1.16
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.16 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 16D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.40 PPG from 60 outings (45W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.33 points per game from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.80 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, SHANGHAI SIPG 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Henan Jianye and 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SHANGHAI SIPG defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.