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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Henan Jianye have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Henan Jianye against 2.20 for SHANGHAI SIPG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Henan Jianye's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 10W 7D 13L from 30 matches. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, SHANGHAI SIPG show 20W 6D 4L from 30 outings in Super League. They average 2.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

SHANGHAI SIPG have been the more prolific side this season at 2.40 goals per game compared to 1.70 for the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 23%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 10/10 vs SHANGHAI SIPG 6/6 this season.

Trading Data

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and SHANGHAI SIPG 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Henan Jianye 55% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.796 / defence 0.911 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.925 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.379. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 45 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 43% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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