Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Chongqing Tongliang Long welcome Tianjin Teda to Tongliang Long Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.844 / defence 0.976 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.403. Data: 15 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 45 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 33% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 40%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 33% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21 / Tianjin Teda 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.844 / def 0.976 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 33% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Tianjin Teda away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack rating (0.84) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.77
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.56
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.36 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1
Draws
0
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Chongqing Tongliang Long defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 33% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 40%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chongqing Tongliang Long win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.