Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Chongqing Tongliang Long welcome Tianjin Teda to Tongliang Long Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Team Stats
Tianjin Teda's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 12W 8D 10L from 30 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.844 / defence 0.976 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.403. Data: 15 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 45 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 33% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 40%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) | Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W • Goals trend: 0.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 – 0 Tianjin Teda • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% / Draw 100% / Tianjin Teda 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 27% / away 40% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 0.00 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.56 (47% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Tianjin Teda away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | CS 0
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 33% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21 / Tianjin Teda 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.844 / def 0.976 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 33% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda?
• Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W • Goals trend: 0.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 – 0 Tianjin Teda • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% / Draw 100% / Tianjin Teda 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 27% / away 40% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 0.00 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.56 (47% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Tianjin Teda in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Tianjin Teda away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | CS 0
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture