Shenyang Urban 3-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Shenyang Urban in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.802 / defence 0.960 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.898 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.303. Data: 14 Shenyang Urban games / 44 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 37%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.06 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.802 / def 0.960 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.898 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shenyang Urban 3 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 34% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shenyang Urban's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.90x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.37
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.18
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.12 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
0
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 1 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shenyang Urban 3-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shenyang Urban defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-2 at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shenyang Urban beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 34% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 37%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shenyang Urban win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.