📋

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Shenzhen Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 27 June 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Shenzhen Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Chengdu Better City are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Chengdu Better City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 8W 3D 19L. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 2.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Chengdu Better City have played 30 games this season, recording 17W 9D 4L. Their scoring output is 2.0 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 30 games (27%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Chengdu Better City have been the more prolific side this season at 2.00 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 5). Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 1/1 vs Chengdu Better City 4/4 this season.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Chengdu Better City 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.47 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.009 / defence 1.057 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.052 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.379. Data: 45 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 45 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 39%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Chengdu Better City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Chengdu Better City 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights