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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Henan Jianye. A 0.50 PPG lead over Hangzhou Greentown (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Henan Jianye 4W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 3D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

Henan Jianye's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 10W 7D 13L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Hangzhou Greentown have played 30 games this season, recording 10W 12D 8L. Attacking returns: 2.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Hangzhou Greentown lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 5). Henan Jianye are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 10/10 vs Hangzhou Greentown 2/2 this season.

Trading Data

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Henan Jianye 55% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.866 / defence 0.861 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.012 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.323. Data: 44 Henan Jianye games / 44 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.70. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.

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