Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Henan Jianye. A 0.50 PPG lead over Hangzhou Greentown (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Henan Jianye 3W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Henan Jianye 55% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.866 / defence 0.861 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.012 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.323. Data: 44 Henan Jianye games / 44 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.70. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Henan Jianye 1.62 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.866 / def 0.861 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.012 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Henan Jianye 0 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 48% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (8 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.01x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.06
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.77
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.15 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 16D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.33 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Henan Jianye and 70% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Henan Jianye 0-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.