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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Yunnan Yukun make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Yunnan Yukun are 0.50 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Yunnan Yukun winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

Qingdao Jonoon's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 5W 10D 15L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Trading Data

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Jonoon 50% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.55 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.035 / defence 0.940 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.116 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.327. Data: 45 Qingdao Jonoon games / 45 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Yunnan Yukun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.

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