Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Youth Island at 1.60 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Qingdao Youth Island's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 63% and SHANGHAI SIPG 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 48% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.41 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.910 / defence 0.832 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.985 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.393. Data: 46 Qingdao Youth Island games / 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.41 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.910 / def 0.832 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.985 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 43% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 2 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.79
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.55
1.14
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.14 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 19D 13L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.87 PPG from 46 outings (25W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 8W 11D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.87 points per game from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 80%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.52 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Qingdao Youth Island at 61%, SHANGHAI SIPG at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 74% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 78% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 74% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.41 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 48%, SHANGHAI SIPG 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Youth Island winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.