Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Henan Jianye to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 5W 2D 3L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.40 (Henan Jianye). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yunnan Yukun, 1 for Henan Jianye and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Yunnan Yukun in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 74% and Henan Jianye 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 63% | Henan Jianye 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.51 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.055 / defence 1.111 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.397. Data: 46 Yunnan Yukun games / 46 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 35%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.51 / Henan Jianye 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.055 / def 1.111 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Henan Jianye xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 3 July 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 40% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.05
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.91
1.40
Henan Jianye xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.40 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 17W 12D 17L from 46 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 20L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.37 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.50 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Henan Jianye away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.73 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yunnan Yukun at 64%, Henan Jianye at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Yunnan Yukun and 64% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 68% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 64% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.51 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 35%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 63%, Henan Jianye 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.37 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.