📋

Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Henan Jianye to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 5W 2D 3L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.40 (Henan Jianye). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yunnan Yukun, 1 for Henan Jianye and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Yunnan Yukun in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 74% and Henan Jianye 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 63% | Henan Jianye 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.51 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.055 / defence 1.111 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.397. Data: 46 Yunnan Yukun games / 46 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 35%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights