Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Youth Island at 1.30 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 3 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.797 / defence 0.866 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.054 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.368. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Qingdao Youth Island games / 45 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.34 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.797 / def 0.866 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.054 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hangzhou Greentown xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 28 June 2026 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 39% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 2W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.79
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.25 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 18D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.30 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Qingdao Youth Island and 70% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.