Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Beijing Guoan welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Beijing Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at Beijing Workers' Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 3 for Wuhan Three Towns and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Wuhan Three Towns 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.56 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.188 / defence 1.208 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.403. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Beijing Guoan games / 45 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.33 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 77% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.56 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.188 / def 1.208 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 55% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (9 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 3 | Wuhan Three Towns 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.19x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.8%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
55%
1.82
19%
5.37
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
4.33
1.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.82
55%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
8%
12.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
2%
49.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.77 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 14D 13L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 0.93 PPG from 60 outings (14W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 20W 5D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 70%, Wuhan Three Towns at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 53% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.56 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 1.30, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.