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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 3D 1L at Pudong Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, SHANGHAI SIPG show 20W 6D 4L from 30 outings in Super League. They average 2.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Trading Patterns

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.136 / defence 1.044 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.146 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.230. Data: 43 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 43 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 33%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Tianjin Teda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

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