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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Yunnan Yukun (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 11W 9D 10L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 30 games (17%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Qingdao Youth Island have played 30 games this season, recording 10W 10D 10L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 30 games (10%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Qingdao Youth Island lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 7). Penalty activity: Yunnan Yukun 4/4 vs Qingdao Youth Island 4/4 this season.

Trading & In-Play

Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Qingdao Youth Island 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Qingdao Youth Island 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.80 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.046 / defence 1.105 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.020 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.216. Data: 43 Yunnan Yukun games / 43 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.45. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.

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