📋

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 2 for Chengdu Better City and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

Dalian Zhixing's full-season record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Chengdu Better City's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 17W 9D 4L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 2.0 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 30 games (27%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Chengdu Better City have been the more prolific side this season at 2.00 goals per game compared to 1.00 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 1.50 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 8). Chengdu Better City score 2+ goals far more often (27% vs 3%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Dalian Zhixing 2/2 vs Chengdu Better City 4/4 this season.

In-Play Data

Dalian Zhixing trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Chengdu Better City trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Chengdu Better City 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Chengdu Better City 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.36 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.998 / defence 1.023 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.241 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.231. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Dalian Zhixing games / 43 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 33% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 42%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Chengdu Better City 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Chengdu Better City 80%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights