Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Shanghai Shenhua have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 58% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.19 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.225 / defence 1.136 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.699 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.292. Data: 43 Shanghai Shenhua games / 43 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.19 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.225 / def 1.136 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.699 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 64% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (4 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 2W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.02
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.22
1.03
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
54.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.03 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 43W 12D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 11D 34L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.43 PPG from 30 outings (22W 7D 1L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 5D 20L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.43 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 67%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shanghai Shenhua and 57% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.19 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.03 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.23 / defence 1.14 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 65%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.