Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Uthai Thani at 80th Birthday Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Uthai Thani's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.00 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Uthai Thani 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–7 Uthai Thani — a Uthai Thani win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Uthai Thani trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Uthai Thani 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Uthai Thani 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Uthai Thani have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.743 / defence 1.109 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.097. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 54 games and Uthai Thani's last 54.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.57 | Draw 2.99 | Uthai Thani 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 27 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 / Uthai Thani 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.743 / def 1.109 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 27) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 39% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.74x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 54 games and Uthai Thani's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
39%
2.57
33%
2.99
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.31
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.04 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 11W 16D 27L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Uthai Thani's form line: 15W 18D 21L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.91 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 27 home games (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 7D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.31 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 11W 16D 27L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Nov 2025, when Uthai Thani won Uthai Thani 7-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 63%, Uthai Thani 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 48% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Uthai Thani in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 59% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 48% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 74% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nakhon Ratchasima FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.11 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Uthai Thani 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.