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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Ayutthaya FC take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

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Full Analysis

Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 1W, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 62% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.629 / defence 1.284 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.747 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.145. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Ayutthaya FC games / 53 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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