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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.00 PPG, Rayong FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Rayong FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 58% and Rayong FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Rayong FC 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.058 / defence 0.900 | Rayong FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.100. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Uthai Thani games / 55 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Rayong FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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