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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Buriram United.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.

Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Buriram United's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.80 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Ratchaburi's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Buriram United — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Buriram United 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.025 / defence 0.977 | Buriram United attack 1.482 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.124. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Ratchaburi games / 54 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Buriram United 2.17. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.

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