Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.80 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Ratchaburi's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Buriram United — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.025 / defence 0.977 | Buriram United attack 1.482 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.124. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Ratchaburi games / 54 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Buriram United 2.17. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 1.13 / Buriram United 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.025 / def 0.977 | Buriram United attack 1.482 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Buriram United xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Ratchaburi 2 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 24% chance of winning, Buriram United a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Record (9 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 6W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.48x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
24%
4.19
30%
3.35
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.76
1.63
Buriram United xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.63 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 11D 14L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.43 PPG from 53 outings (41W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.32 points per game from 25 outings (18W 4D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.92 scored and 0.77 conceded. Ratchaburi's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Buriram United in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 41W 6D 6L in their last 53 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.04 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Buriram United in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Buriram United have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 48%, Buriram United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Ratchaburi and 72% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Buriram United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Ratchaburi's games and 64% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Ratchaburi's matches and 72% of Buriram United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Buriram United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 27, as Ratchaburi and Buriram United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Buriram United attack 1.48 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 57%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.