🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Bangkok United (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bangkok United face Sukhothai FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bangkok United host Sukhothai FC at Thammasat Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bangkok United — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bangkok United's home record at Thammasat Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Bangkok United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Bangkok United have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Sukhothai FC have managed just 0 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Bangkok United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bangkok United trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Sukhothai FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 58% versus Sukhothai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 55% | Sukhothai FC 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 2.11 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.060 / defence 0.918 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.554 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.125. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Bangkok United games / 55 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bangkok United 71% | Draw 22% | Sukhothai FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.41 | Draw 4.55 | Sukhothai FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (71%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Bangkok United 80% | Sukhothai FC 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights