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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 1W 8D 1L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Ayutthaya FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 52% | Ayutthaya FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.988 / defence 1.111 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: 55 Lamphun Warrior games / 25 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Ayutthaya FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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