Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 1W 8D 1L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Ayutthaya FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 52% | Ayutthaya FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.988 / defence 1.111 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: 55 Lamphun Warrior games / 25 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Ayutthaya FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.25 / Ayutthaya FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.988 / def 1.111 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.035 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ayutthaya FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 0 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.08
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Ayutthaya FC xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.28 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 3W 14D 8L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.92 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (1W 9D 2L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 4D 2L from 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.28 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 14D 8L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 83%, Ayutthaya FC at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamphun Warrior) and 50% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 58% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 52%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.92 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.