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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Chonburi FC welcome Rayong FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 0, Rayong FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Rayong FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 56% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 44% | Rayong FC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.036 | Rayong FC attack 0.951 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: 25 Chonburi FC games / 54 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Rayong FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Rayong FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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