Kanchanaburi 0-2 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kanchanaburi Province Stadium plays host to Kanchanaburi versus BG Pathum United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kanchanaburi have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
BG Pathum United (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 1.30 for BG Pathum United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kanchanaburi 0W, BG Pathum United 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 54% versus BG Pathum United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 46% | BG Pathum United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 0.86 xG and BG Pathum United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.745 / defence 1.315 | BG Pathum United attack 1.008 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.118. Kanchanaburi's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Kanchanaburi games / 55 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 19% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 49%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | BG Pathum United 2.04. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 40% | BG Pathum United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 19% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Kanchanaburi 0.86 / BG Pathum United 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.745 / def 1.315 | BG Pathum United attack 1.008 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.48
BG Pathum United xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Kanchanaburi 0 - 2 BG Pathum United.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United part of?
Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 19% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Kanchanaburi 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kanchanaburi's attack at 0.74x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (1.01x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 26/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
19%
5.21
32%
3.14
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.35
1.48
BG Pathum United xG
5.21
19%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
4%
22.96
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.48 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kanchanaburi come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 10D 12L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BG Pathum United sit at 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Kanchanaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kanchanaburi's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Kanchanaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BG Pathum United have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 4W 10D 12L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.27 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Kanchanaburi or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kanchanaburi have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
0
Draws
2
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Kanchanaburi 0-2 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 46%, BG Pathum United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kanchanaburi) and 36% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 36%; Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 54% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kanchanaburi vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 36% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kanchanaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Kanchanaburi 0-2 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 0.86 xG and BG Pathum United 1.48 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.74 / defence 1.31 against BG Pathum United attack 1.01 / defence 0.81, drawn from 26/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 19% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 49%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 46%, BG Pathum United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (26 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (26 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.