Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 4W 2D 4L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Uthai Thani, 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Uthai Thani 1W, Lamphun Warrior 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 60% and Lamphun Warrior 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 49% | Lamphun Warrior 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.07 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.224 / defence 0.967 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.823 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.135. Data: 53 Uthai Thani games / 54 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 63% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 14%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Lamphun Warrior 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 63% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Uthai Thani 2.07 / Lamphun Warrior 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.224 / def 0.967 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.823 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lamphun Warrior xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Uthai Thani 0 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 63% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (5 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 3 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.82x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.26
14%
7.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.97
0.90
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
7.22
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
57.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 15W 17D 21L from 53 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 11W 23D 19L across 53 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.06 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 10W 10D 6L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.23 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 15W 17D 21L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 11W 23D 19L in their last 53 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.54 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Lamphun Warrior 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 46% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Uthai Thani's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.07 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.90 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 63% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 14%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 49%, Lamphun Warrior 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.